Actual result
R+9.8
Final polls said
R+6.0
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+4.2
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+10.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+9.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+4.2 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | PSB Research | D+1.0 | 10.8 | ✗ |
| 5 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+2.0 | 11.8 | ✗ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2010-10-24 | 400 | R+9.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-18 | 500 | R+10.0 | 0 |
| PSB Research | 2010-10-18 | 398 | D+1.0 | 11 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-20 | 500 | R+3.0 | 7 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2010-09-11 | 501 | D+2.0 | 12 |