Actual result
R+12.1
Final polls said
R+3.1
8 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+7.1
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Craciun Research Group | R+11.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Big Village | R+14.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+8.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+7.1 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | Public Policy Polling | R+7.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | Hellenthal & Associates | R+6.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | National Research | R+6.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 8 | Dittman Research | R+4.0 | 8.1 | ✓ |
| 9 | Alaska Survey Research | R+22.1 | 10.1 | ✓ |
| 10 | Hays Research Group | R+1.2 | 10.9 | ✓ |
Polls (17)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hays Research Group | 2010-10-30 | 502 | R+1.2 | 11 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-10-30 | 1539 | R+7.0 | 5 |
| Hellenthal & Associates | 2010-10-26 | 400 | R+6.0 | 6 |
| Dittman Research | 2010-10-25 | 421 | R+4.0 | 8 |
| Hays Research Group | 2010-10-25 | 500 | D+6.0 | 18 |
| Hays Research Group | 2010-10-21 | 500 | R+1.0 | 11 |
| Big Village | 2010-10-17 | 946 | R+14.0 | 2 |
| Hays Research Group | 2010-10-17 | 500 | D+2.0 | 14 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-13 | 500 | R+8.0 | 4 |
| Dittman Research | 2010-10-09 | 414 | R+5.0 | 7 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-10-09 | 1678 | R+9.0 | 3 |
| National Research | 2010-10-08 | 400 | R+6.0 | 6 |
| Hays Research Group | 2010-10-05 | 500 | R+15.0 | 3 |
| Big Village | 2010-09-26 | 927 | R+16.0 | 4 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 2010-09-25 | 573 | R+22.1 | 10 |
| Craciun Research Group | 2010-09-24 | 300 | R+11.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-19 | 500 | R+17.0 | 5 |