Actual result
R+28.7
Final polls said
R+25.4
13 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+22.4
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | R+28.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Quinnipiac University | R+27.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | YouGov | R+31.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Public Policy Polling | R+26.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | Big Village | R+26.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+24.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 7 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+34.0 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 8 | VotePredictor | R+22.4 | 6.3 | ✓ |
| 9 | Zogby Analytics | R+22.0 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| 10 | Ipsos | R+21.0 | 7.7 | ✓ |
| 11 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+21.0 | 7.7 | ✓ |
| 12 | Suffolk University | R+17.0 | 11.7 | ✓ |
Polls (29)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2010-10-30 | 548 | R+31.0 | 2 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2010-10-30 | 1527 | R+28.0 | 1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-10-30 | 773 | R+26.0 | 3 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2010-10-28 | 925 | R+27.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-27 | 750 | R+34.0 | 5 |
| YouGov | 2010-10-27 | 826 | R+24.0 | 5 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2010-10-26 | 679 | R+24.0 | 5 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2010-10-21 | 784 | R+27.0 | 2 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2010-10-20 | 802 | R+22.0 | 7 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-18 | 750 | R+23.0 | 6 |
| Ipsos | 2010-10-17 | 577 | R+21.0 | 8 |
| Big Village | 2010-10-17 | 798 | R+26.0 | 3 |
| Suffolk University | 2010-10-16 | 500 | R+17.0 | 12 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-10-09 | 448 | R+23.0 | 6 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2010-10-08 | 1151 | R+23.0 | 6 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2010-10-08 | 1055 | R+22.0 | 7 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-07 | 750 | R+31.0 | 2 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2010-10-05 | 625 | R+21.0 | 8 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2010-09-29 | 800 | R+24.0 | 5 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2010-09-28 | 802 | R+21.0 | 8 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-28 | 750 | R+20.0 | 9 |
| Big Village | 2010-09-26 | 786 | R+19.0 | 10 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2010-09-25 | 1151 | R+28.0 | 1 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2010-09-21 | 625 | R+17.0 | 12 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-14 | 750 | R+18.0 | 11 |
| Ipsos | 2010-09-11 | 486 | R+19.0 | 10 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-11 | 1000 | R+22.0 | 7 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2010-09-04 | 1016 | R+20.0 | 9 |
| Big Village | 2010-09-04 | 899 | R+12.0 | 17 |