Actual result
R+13.6
Final polls said
R+8.9
6 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+9.4
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Missouri State University Center for Social Science and Public Policy Research | R+13.1 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Big Village | R+13.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | YouGov | R+11.1 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+9.4 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+9.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+9.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 7 | Public Policy Polling | R+5.0 | 8.6 | ✓ |
| 8 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | R+4.0 | 9.6 | ✓ |
| 9 | Global Strategy Group | R+4.0 | 9.6 | ✓ |
Polls (13)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2010-10-27 | 789 | R+11.1 | 3 |
| Missouri State University Center for Social Science and Public Policy Research | 2010-10-24 | 672 | R+13.1 | 1 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2010-10-19 | 625 | R+9.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-19 | 750 | R+9.0 | 5 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-10-17 | 646 | R+5.0 | 9 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-16 | 1000 | R+6.0 | 8 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-05 | 750 | R+8.0 | 6 |
| Big Village | 2010-10-03 | 832 | R+13.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-02 | 1000 | R+8.0 | 6 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2010-09-21 | 701 | R+4.0 | 10 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-21 | 750 | R+8.0 | 6 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2010-09-16 | 601 | R+4.0 | 10 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-07 | 750 | R+10.0 | 4 |