Actual result
D+5.7
Final polls said
R+3.4
8 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+1.6
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Opinion Strategies | D+5.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Suffolk University | D+3.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Ipsos | D+2.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | Public Policy Polling | R+1.0 | 6.7 | ✗ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | R+1.6 | 7.4 | ✗ |
| 6 | YouGov | R+2.0 | 7.7 | ✗ |
| 7 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+3.0 | 8.7 | ✗ |
| 8 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+4.0 | 9.7 | ✗ |
| 9 | Big Village | R+4.0 | 9.7 | ✗ |
| 10 | ccAdvertising | R+5.9 | 11.6 | ✗ |
Polls (24)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-30 | 1000 | R+3.0 | 9 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-10-30 | 682 | R+1.0 | 7 |
| YouGov | 2010-10-27 | 711 | R+2.0 | 8 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2010-10-26 | 625 | R+4.0 | 10 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-25 | 750 | R+4.0 | 10 |
| Big Village | 2010-10-23 | 773 | R+4.0 | 10 |
| ccAdvertising | 2010-10-20 | 1884 | R+5.9 | 12 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-17 | 750 | R+3.0 | 9 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2010-10-11 | 625 | R+2.0 | 8 |
| Suffolk University | 2010-10-09 | 500 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-09 | 1000 | R+2.0 | 8 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-10-08 | 504 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-05 | 750 | R+4.0 | 10 |
| Big Village | 2010-10-03 | 789 | R+2.0 | 8 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-02 | 1000 | R+3.0 | 9 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-28 | 750 | D+1.0 | 5 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2010-09-22 | 500 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2010-09-21 | 625 | EVEN | 6 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-18 | 1000 | R+1.0 | 7 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-13 | 750 | EVEN | 6 |
| Big Village | 2010-09-12 | 789 | R+1.0 | 7 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-11 | 1000 | R+1.0 | 7 |
| Ipsos | 2010-09-11 | 463 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2010-09-08 | 625 | D+2.0 | 4 |