Actual result
D+12.2
Final polls said
D+11.2
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+13.0
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+13.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | D+9.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | D+8.0 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | YouGov | D+18.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+6.0 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | Kiley & Company | D+22.0 | 9.8 | ✓ |
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-11-02 | 835 | D+8.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2012-10-31 | 589 | D+9.0 | 3 |
| Kiley & Company | 2012-10-24 | 601 | D+22.0 | 10 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2012-10-24 | 625 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-20 | 582 | D+11.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2012-10-08 | 533 | D+18.0 | 6 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-02 | 700 | D+19.0 | 7 |
| YouGov | 2012-09-11 | 809 | D+18.0 | 6 |