Actual result
D+3.1
Final polls said
D+1.7
6 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+3.8
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of Washington Center for Survey Research | D+3.1 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+3.8 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | D+2.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+2.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | SurveyUSA | D+1.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | Strategies 360 | EVEN | 3.1 | ✗ |
| 7 | Elway Research | R+2.0 | 5.1 | ✗ |
| 8 | YouGov | D+10.0 | 6.9 | ✓ |
Polls (16)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-11-02 | 932 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2012-10-30 | 555 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| University of Washington Center for Survey Research | 2012-10-24 | 632 | D+3.1 | 0 |
| Elway Research | 2012-10-20 | 451 | R+2.0 | 5 |
| Strategies 360 | 2012-10-19 | 500 | EVEN | 3 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-15 | 574 | D+6.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-14 | 500 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2012-10-13 | 543 | D+3.0 | 0 |
| University of Washington Center for Survey Research | 2012-10-09 | 644 | D+0.8 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2012-10-08 | 648 | D+10.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2012-09-29 | 540 | D+6.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-09-26 | 500 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| Elway Research | 2012-09-11 | 405 | D+3.0 | 0 |
| YouGov | 2012-09-11 | 775 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-09-08 | 563 | D+6.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2012-09-08 | 524 | D+5.0 | 2 |