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Toss-up · 2012 House
Florida House
In the 2012 Florida House race, Patrick Murphy (D) won by less than a point.
Actual result
D+0.6
Final polls said
R+3.6
5 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
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Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | D+1.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Frederick Polls | EVEN | 0.6 | ✗ |
| 3 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | R+1.0 | 1.6 | ✗ |
| 4 | Kimball Political Consulting | D+4.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+9.0 | 8.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | St. Pete Polls | R+9.1 | 9.7 | ✗ |
| 7 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+11.0 | 11.6 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
9 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Public Policy Polling2012-10-250
St. Pete Polls2012-10-1610
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.2012-10-162
Frederick Polls2012-10-161
Public Policy Polling2012-10-1510
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2012 Florida House race?
Patrick Murphy (D) won, by about 0.6 points (D+0.6).
When was the 2012 Florida House election held?
It was held in November 2012.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.