Actual result
D+0.6
Final polls said
R+3.6
5 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+3.9
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | D+1.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Frederick Polls | EVEN | 0.6 | ✗ |
| 3 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | R+1.0 | 1.6 | ✗ |
| 4 | Kimball Political Consulting | D+4.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | R+3.9 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 6 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+9.0 | 8.4 | ✓ |
| 7 | St. Pete Polls | R+9.1 | 9.7 | ✗ |
| 8 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+11.0 | 11.6 | ✗ |
Polls (9)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-25 | 631 | D+1.0 | 0 |
| St. Pete Polls | 2012-10-16 | 586 | R+9.1 | 10 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2012-10-16 | 752 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| Frederick Polls | 2012-10-16 | 333 | EVEN | 1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-15 | 500 | R+9.0 | 10 |
| St. Pete Polls | 2012-10-04 | 902 | R+12.0 | 13 |
| Kimball Political Consulting | 2012-09-28 | 408 | D+4.0 | 3 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2012-09-26 | 401 | D+9.0 | 8 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2012-09-24 | 400 | R+11.0 | 12 |