Actual result
D+9.3
Final polls said
D+4.0
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+4.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Impact Research | D+10.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | D+10.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+4.4 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | St. Pete Polls | D+3.2 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | Public Policy Polling | D+3.0 | 6.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | EVEN | 9.3 | ✗ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research | 2012-10-20 | 501 | D+10.0 | 1 |
| St. Pete Polls | 2012-10-16 | 557 | D+3.2 | 6 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2012-10-16 | 750 | EVEN | 9 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-15 | 500 | D+3.0 | 6 |
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | 2012-10-10 | 450 | D+10.0 | 1 |
| St. Pete Polls | 2012-10-04 | 407 | R+1.0 | 10 |