Actual result
D+8.9
Final polls said
D+0.8
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+1.0
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rasmussen Reports | D+7.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Policy Polling | D+4.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Victoria Research & Consulting | D+4.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyUSA | D+2.0 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | D+1.0 | 7.9 | ✓ |
| 6 | Global Strategy Group | EVEN | 8.9 | ✗ |
| 7 | OnMessage Inc. | R+10.0 | 18.9 | ✗ |
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2012-11-02 | 585 | D+2.0 | 7 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-25 | 1020 | D+4.0 | 5 |
| OnMessage Inc. | 2012-10-24 | 400 | R+10.0 | 19 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2012-10-16 | 1000 | D+7.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2012-10-08 | 578 | D+1.0 | 8 |
| Victoria Research & Consulting | 2012-10-07 | 400 | D+4.0 | 5 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2012-10-06 | 405 | EVEN | 9 |
| SurveyUSA | 2012-09-08 | 578 | D+1.0 | 8 |