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Toss-up · 2012 House
Minnesota House
In the 2012 Minnesota House race, Richard M. Nolan (D) won by about 9 points.
Actual result
D+8.9
Final polls said
D+0.8
4 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rasmussen Reports | D+7.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Policy Polling | D+4.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Victoria Research & Consulting | D+4.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyUSA | D+2.0 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | Global Strategy Group | EVEN | 8.9 | ✗ |
| 6 | OnMessage Inc. | R+10.0 | 18.9 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
8 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyUSA2012-11-027
Public Policy Polling2012-10-255
OnMessage Inc.2012-10-2419
Rasmussen Reports2012-10-162
SurveyUSA2012-10-088
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2012 Minnesota House race?
Richard M. Nolan (D) won, by about 8.9 points (D+8.9).
When was the 2012 Minnesota House election held?
It was held in November 2012.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.