Actual result
D+3.8
Final polls said
R+1.6
5 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+2.4
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Global Strategy Group | D+3.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | EVEN | 3.8 | ✗ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | R+1.0 | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+2.4 | 6.1 | ✗ |
| 5 | New England College Polling Center | R+7.0 | 10.8 | ✗ |
| 6 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+8.0 | 11.8 | ✗ |
Polls (9)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2012-11-03 | 365 | EVEN | 4 |
| New England College Polling Center | 2012-10-30 | 511 | R+7.0 | 11 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-25 | 654 | R+1.0 | 5 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2012-10-19 | 364 | R+3.0 | 7 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2012-10-15 | 401 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2012-10-03 | 200 | R+10.0 | 14 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2012-09-29 | 269 | D+9.0 | 5 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-09-24 | 401 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2012-09-24 | 400 | R+8.0 | 12 |