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Toss-up · 2012 House
New Hampshire House
In the 2012 New Hampshire House race, Carol Shea-Porter (D) won by about 4 points.
Actual result
D+3.8
Final polls said
R+1.6
5 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
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Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Global Strategy Group | D+3.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | EVEN | 3.8 | ✗ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | R+1.0 | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 4 | New England College Polling Center | R+7.0 | 10.8 | ✗ |
| 5 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+8.0 | 11.8 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
9 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
University of New Hampshire Survey Center2012-11-034
New England College Polling Center2012-10-3011
Public Policy Polling2012-10-255
University of New Hampshire Survey Center2012-10-197
Global Strategy Group2012-10-151
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2012 New Hampshire House race?
Carol Shea-Porter (D) won, by about 3.8 points (D+3.8).
When was the 2012 New Hampshire House election held?
It was held in November 2012.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.