Actual result
D+4.8
Final polls said
D+5.3
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+4.2
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+4.2 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | New England College Polling Center | D+6.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | D+6.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | D+7.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2012-11-03 | 411 | D+7.0 | 2 |
| New England College Polling Center | 2012-10-30 | 511 | D+6.0 | 1 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2012-10-19 | 408 | D+3.0 | 2 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2012-10-03 | 211 | D+3.0 | 2 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2012-09-29 | 322 | D+1.0 | 4 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-09-24 | 461 | D+6.0 | 1 |