Actual result
R+9.1
Final polls said
R+7.7
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+8.9
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+8.9 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | R+8.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+8.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Public Policy Polling | R+7.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Moore Information Group | R+4.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | Purple Strategies | R+3.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain Poll) | D+2.0 | 11.1 | ✗ |
Polls (11)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2012-11-02 | 702 | R+8.0 | 1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-11-02 | 1080 | R+7.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-21 | 500 | R+8.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2012-10-08 | 469 | R+9.0 | 0 |
| Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain Poll) | 2012-10-07 | 450 | D+2.0 | 11 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-02 | 595 | R+11.0 | 2 |
| Moore Information Group | 2012-09-25 | 500 | R+4.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-09-25 | 500 | R+10.0 | 1 |
| Purple Strategies | 2012-09-17 | 600 | R+3.0 | 6 |
| YouGov | 2012-09-11 | 628 | R+10.0 | 1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-09-08 | 993 | R+9.0 | 0 |