Actual result
D+5.4
Final polls said
D+1.4
23 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+2.2
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | D+6.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Keating Research | D+4.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Selzer & Co. | D+4.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | We Ask America | D+3.4 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | Grove Insight | D+3.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | Gravis Marketing | D+2.4 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | D+2.2 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 8 | SurveyUSA | D+2.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 9 | Ipsos | D+1.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 10 | YouGov | D+1.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 11 | CallFire | D+1.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 12 | Big Village | D+1.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 13 | Purple Strategies | D+1.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 14 | Marist College | EVEN | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 15 | American Research Group | R+1.0 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 16 | Quinnipiac University | R+1.0 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 17 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+3.0 | 8.4 | ✗ |
| 18 | McLaughlin & Associates | R+4.0 | 9.4 | ✗ |
Polls (43)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipsos | 2012-11-04 | 774 | D+1.0 | 4 |
| Keating Research | 2012-11-03 | 603 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-11-03 | 1096 | D+6.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2012-11-02 | 752 | D+1.0 | 4 |
| Ipsos | 2012-11-01 | 1226 | R+3.0 | 8 |
| Ipsos | 2012-11-01 | 1052 | EVEN | 5 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-31 | 825 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| We Ask America | 2012-10-30 | 1246 | D+3.4 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2012-10-30 | 695 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| CallFire | 2012-10-30 | 839 | D+1.0 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-29 | 750 | R+3.0 | 8 |
| Big Village | 2012-10-28 | 764 | D+1.0 | 4 |
| Grove Insight | 2012-10-28 | 500 | D+3.0 | 2 |
| American Research Group | 2012-10-27 | 600 | R+1.0 | 6 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-24 | 904 | D+3.0 | 2 |
| Purple Strategies | 2012-10-24 | 600 | D+1.0 | 4 |
| Keating Research | 2012-10-23 | 502 | D+3.0 | 2 |
| Marist College | 2012-10-23 | 1128 | EVEN | 5 |
| Grove Insight | 2012-10-23 | 500 | D+3.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-21 | 500 | R+4.0 | 9 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-17 | 1000 | D+5.0 | 0 |
| Grove Insight | 2012-10-15 | 500 | D+3.0 | 2 |
| We Ask America | 2012-10-15 | 1206 | R+1.1 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2012-10-09 | 614 | R+1.0 | 6 |
| YouGov | 2012-10-08 | 527 | D+3.0 | 2 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2012-10-08 | 2089 | D+2.4 | 3 |
| American Research Group | 2012-10-07 | 600 | R+4.0 | 9 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-07 | 500 | D+1.0 | 4 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2012-10-06 | 1254 | R+1.0 | 6 |
| Selzer & Co. | 2012-10-04 | 604 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2012-10-03 | 1438 | R+3.5 | 9 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2012-10-01 | 300 | R+4.0 | 9 |
| We Ask America | 2012-09-26 | 1273 | D+3.8 | 2 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-09-22 | 940 | D+6.0 | 1 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2012-09-21 | 765 | D+4.7 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-09-17 | 500 | R+2.0 | 7 |
| Purple Strategies | 2012-09-17 | 600 | D+3.0 | 2 |
| Marist College | 2012-09-17 | 971 | D+5.0 | 0 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2012-09-14 | 1497 | D+1.0 | 4 |
| American Research Group | 2012-09-11 | 600 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2012-09-11 | 707 | D+5.0 | 0 |
| SurveyUSA | 2012-09-11 | 615 | D+1.0 | 4 |
| Keating Research | 2012-09-10 | 503 | D+5.0 | 0 |