Actual result
D+16.9
Final polls said
D+17.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+22.8
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | We Ask America | D+16.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | D+19.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Market Shares Corp. | D+19.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Southern Illinois University Paul Simon Public Policy Institute | D+13.3 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | D+22.8 | 5.9 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2012-11-02 | 1126 | D+19.0 | 2 |
| We Ask America | 2012-10-30 | 1198 | D+16.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2012-10-08 | 850 | D+20.0 | 3 |
| Market Shares Corp. | 2012-10-06 | 700 | D+19.0 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2012-09-11 | 1086 | D+23.0 | 6 |
| Southern Illinois University Paul Simon Public Policy Institute | 2012-09-07 | 1261 | D+13.3 | 4 |