Actual result
D+9.5
Final polls said
D+5.1
13 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+8.3
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+8.3 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Big Village | D+8.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | YouGov | D+7.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | Grove Insight | D+7.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | We Ask America | D+12.1 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | Public Policy Polling | D+6.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 7 | EPIC-MRA | D+6.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 8 | Marketing Resource Group (MRG) | D+5.2 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 9 | Mitchell Research & Communications | D+5.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 10 | Angus Reid Global | D+5.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 11 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+5.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 12 | Denno Research | D+3.7 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 13 | Glengariff Group | D+2.7 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 14 | Gravis Marketing | D+1.6 | 7.9 | ✓ |
| 15 | Baydoun Consulting | R+0.6 | 10.1 | ✗ |
Polls (30)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2012-11-04 | 1305 | D+5.0 | 5 |
| YouGov | 2012-11-02 | 1091 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| Angus Reid Global | 2012-11-02 | 502 | D+5.0 | 5 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-11-02 | 700 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| Baydoun Consulting | 2012-11-02 | 1913 | R+0.6 | 10 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-11-01 | 750 | D+5.0 | 5 |
| Grove Insight | 2012-10-31 | 500 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-30 | 500 | D+8.0 | 2 |
| EPIC-MRA | 2012-10-28 | 600 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| Glengariff Group | 2012-10-28 | 600 | D+2.7 | 7 |
| Baydoun Consulting | 2012-10-22 | 1122 | D+0.4 | 9 |
| Angus Reid Global | 2012-10-19 | 551 | D+9.0 | 1 |
| EPIC-MRA | 2012-10-17 | 800 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-11 | 500 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| Denno Research | 2012-10-09 | 600 | D+3.7 | 6 |
| YouGov | 2012-10-08 | 895 | D+10.0 | 1 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2012-10-07 | 1122 | D+1.6 | 8 |
| Glengariff Group | 2012-10-07 | 600 | D+6.7 | 3 |
| EPIC-MRA | 2012-10-05 | 600 | D+3.0 | 7 |
| Baydoun Consulting | 2012-10-05 | 1122 | D+3.5 | 6 |
| We Ask America | 2012-09-26 | 1064 | D+12.1 | 3 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2012-09-21 | 804 | D+3.8 | 6 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-09-20 | 500 | D+12.0 | 3 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-09-18 | 2386 | D+9.0 | 1 |
| Big Village | 2012-09-16 | 754 | D+8.0 | 2 |
| Glengariff Group | 2012-09-16 | 600 | D+14.2 | 5 |
| Marketing Resource Group (MRG) | 2012-09-12 | 600 | D+5.2 | 4 |
| Baydoun Consulting | 2012-09-12 | 1156 | D+1.8 | 8 |
| YouGov | 2012-09-11 | 1114 | D+9.0 | 1 |
| EPIC-MRA | 2012-09-10 | 600 | D+10.0 | 1 |