Actual result
D+7.7
Final polls said
D+6.3
9 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+8.8
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | D+8.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | St. Cloud State University | D+8.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | YouGov | D+7.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | D+8.8 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+5.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | SurveyUSA | D+11.0 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 7 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+3.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 8 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+1.0 | 8.7 | ✗ |
Polls (17)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2012-11-02 | 790 | D+7.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2012-11-02 | 556 | D+11.0 | 3 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-11-02 | 1164 | D+8.0 | 0 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-31 | 772 | D+9.0 | 1 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2012-10-30 | 500 | R+1.0 | 9 |
| SurveyUSA | 2012-10-27 | 574 | D+7.0 | 1 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2012-10-24 | 800 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-21 | 500 | D+5.0 | 3 |
| St. Cloud State University | 2012-10-18 | 601 | D+8.0 | 0 |
| SurveyUSA | 2012-10-13 | 550 | D+10.0 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2012-10-08 | 683 | D+8.0 | 0 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-07 | 937 | D+10.0 | 2 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2012-10-07 | 500 | D+4.0 | 4 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2012-09-18 | 800 | D+8.0 | 0 |
| YouGov | 2012-09-11 | 816 | D+8.0 | 0 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-09-10 | 824 | D+7.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2012-09-08 | 551 | D+10.0 | 2 |