Actual result
R+9.4
Final polls said
R+9.7
7 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+10.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gravis Marketing | R+8.4 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+10.5 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | R+8.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | YouGov | R+11.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+11.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | We Ask America | R+11.6 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 7 | SurveyUSA | R+7.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 8 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+13.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 9 | Clout Research | R+14.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
Polls (17)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2012-11-02 | 779 | R+11.0 | 2 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-11-02 | 835 | R+8.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2012-10-31 | 589 | R+7.0 | 2 |
| We Ask America | 2012-10-30 | 1217 | R+11.6 | 2 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2012-10-24 | 625 | R+13.0 | 4 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-20 | 582 | R+6.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-17 | 500 | R+11.0 | 2 |
| Clout Research | 2012-10-12 | 1000 | R+14.0 | 5 |
| YouGov | 2012-10-08 | 546 | R+10.0 | 1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-02 | 700 | R+6.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-02 | 500 | R+3.0 | 6 |
| Clout Research | 2012-09-30 | 675 | R+10.0 | 1 |
| We Ask America | 2012-09-26 | 1145 | R+3.2 | 6 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2012-09-16 | 1952 | R+8.4 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-09-11 | 500 | R+3.0 | 6 |
| YouGov | 2012-09-11 | 734 | R+7.0 | 2 |
| Clout Research | 2012-09-10 | 850 | R+19.6 | 10 |