Actual result
R+2.0
Final polls said
R+1.9
14 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+2.3
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | YouGov | R+2.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+2.3 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | High Point University Survey Research Center | R+1.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | National Research | R+1.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | Public Policy Polling | R+0.2 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 6 | Gravis Marketing | R+4.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 7 | The Tyson Group | R+4.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 8 | American Research Group | R+4.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 9 | Elon University | D+0.1 | 2.1 | ✗ |
| 10 | SurveyUSA | R+5.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 11 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+6.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 12 | Marist College | D+2.0 | 4.0 | ✗ |
| 13 | Purple Strategies | D+2.0 | 4.0 | ✗ |
| 14 | Grove Insight | D+3.0 | 5.0 | ✗ |
Polls (32)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravis Marketing | 2012-11-04 | 1130 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-11-03 | 926 | R+0.2 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2012-11-02 | 1500 | R+2.0 | 0 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-30 | 730 | EVEN | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2012-10-28 | 682 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| High Point University Survey Research Center | 2012-10-26 | 403 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-25 | 500 | R+6.0 | 4 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-24 | 880 | EVEN | 2 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2012-10-24 | 1723 | R+8.0 | 6 |
| Grove Insight | 2012-10-23 | 500 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| Elon University | 2012-10-23 | 1238 | D+0.1 | 2 |
| National Research | 2012-10-20 | 600 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-17 | 500 | R+6.0 | 4 |
| Grove Insight | 2012-10-17 | 500 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-13 | 1084 | R+2.0 | 0 |
| The Tyson Group | 2012-10-12 | 600 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-09 | 500 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2012-10-08 | 810 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| High Point University Survey Research Center | 2012-10-07 | 312 | R+6.0 | 4 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2012-10-07 | 1325 | R+8.7 | 7 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-02 | 500 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| High Point University Survey Research Center | 2012-10-01 | 291 | D+9.0 | 11 |
| SurveyUSA | 2012-09-30 | 573 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| American Research Group | 2012-09-29 | 600 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-09-29 | 981 | EVEN | 2 |
| Marist College | 2012-09-24 | 1035 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| National Research | 2012-09-18 | 600 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| Purple Strategies | 2012-09-17 | 600 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| High Point University Survey Research Center | 2012-09-13 | 448 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-09-13 | 500 | R+6.0 | 4 |
| YouGov | 2012-09-11 | 1060 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-09-08 | 1087 | D+1.0 | 3 |