Actual result
D+6.7
Final polls said
D+4.0
14 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+4.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mellman Group | D+6.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Grove Insight | D+6.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+4.4 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Public Policy Polling | D+4.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | YouGov | D+4.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | SurveyUSA | D+4.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 7 | CallFire | D+4.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 8 | Marist College | D+3.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 9 | Big Village | D+3.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 10 | We Ask America | D+10.5 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 11 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+2.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 12 | American Research Group | D+2.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 13 | Suffolk University | D+2.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 14 | Gravis Marketing | D+1.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 15 | Public Opinion Strategies | EVEN | 6.7 | ✗ |
| 16 | Dane & Associates | R+3.0 | 9.7 | ✗ |
Polls (30)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-11-03 | 750 | D+4.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2012-11-02 | 732 | D+4.0 | 3 |
| Mellman Group | 2012-10-30 | 600 | D+6.0 | 1 |
| Grove Insight | 2012-10-27 | 500 | D+6.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2012-10-26 | 1212 | D+4.0 | 3 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2012-10-24 | 955 | D+1.0 | 6 |
| CallFire | 2012-10-24 | 909 | D+4.0 | 3 |
| Marist College | 2012-10-23 | 1042 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-23 | 636 | D+2.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-23 | 500 | D+2.0 | 5 |
| American Research Group | 2012-10-21 | 600 | D+2.0 | 5 |
| Mellman Group | 2012-10-16 | 600 | D+8.0 | 1 |
| Grove Insight | 2012-10-15 | 500 | D+7.0 | 0 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-15 | 500 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2012-10-13 | 806 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-09 | 594 | D+1.0 | 6 |
| YouGov | 2012-10-08 | 358 | D+5.0 | 2 |
| Suffolk University | 2012-10-08 | 500 | D+2.0 | 5 |
| Dane & Associates | 2012-10-08 | 900 | R+3.0 | 10 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-08 | 500 | EVEN | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2012-10-05 | 1222 | D+1.0 | 6 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2012-10-03 | 1006 | D+1.1 | 6 |
| We Ask America | 2012-09-26 | 1152 | D+10.5 | 4 |
| Marist College | 2012-09-24 | 984 | D+2.0 | 5 |
| American Research Group | 2012-09-22 | 600 | D+7.0 | 0 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2012-09-19 | 500 | EVEN | 7 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-09-19 | 501 | D+9.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-09-18 | 500 | D+2.0 | 5 |
| Big Village | 2012-09-16 | 741 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| YouGov | 2012-09-11 | 541 | D+7.0 | 0 |