Actual result
R+3.0
Final polls said
R+3.5
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+4.6
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Moore Information Group | R+3.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+4.6 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | R+5.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+6.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | GS Strategy Group | R+6.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 6 | Tarrance Group | R+6.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 7 | YouGov | R+7.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 8 | Impact Research | D+4.0 | 7.0 | ✗ |
| 9 | Harstad Strategic Research | D+4.0 | 7.0 | ✗ |
| 10 | Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain Poll) | D+4.0 | 7.0 | ✗ |
Polls (15)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2012-11-02 | 702 | R+7.0 | 4 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-11-02 | 1080 | R+5.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-21 | 500 | R+6.0 | 3 |
| Impact Research | 2012-10-19 | 800 | D+4.0 | 7 |
| GS Strategy Group | 2012-10-08 | 500 | R+6.0 | 3 |
| Tarrance Group | 2012-10-08 | 453 | R+6.0 | 3 |
| Harstad Strategic Research | 2012-10-08 | 602 | D+4.0 | 7 |
| YouGov | 2012-10-08 | 469 | R+6.0 | 3 |
| Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain Poll) | 2012-10-07 | 450 | D+4.0 | 7 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-02 | 595 | D+2.0 | 5 |
| Moore Information Group | 2012-09-25 | 500 | R+3.0 | 0 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-09-25 | 500 | R+6.0 | 3 |
| Impact Research | 2012-09-20 | 600 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2012-09-11 | 628 | R+7.0 | 4 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-09-08 | 993 | R+1.0 | 2 |