← all past elections
Toss-up · 2012 Senate
Arizona Senate
In the 2012 Arizona Senate race, Jeff Flake (R) won by about 3 points.
Actual result
R+3.0
Final polls said
R+3.5
4 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Moore Information Group | R+3.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Policy Polling | R+5.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+6.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | GS Strategy Group | R+6.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | Tarrance Group | R+6.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 6 | YouGov | R+7.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 7 | Impact Research | D+4.0 | 7.0 | ✗ |
| 8 | Harstad Strategic Research | D+4.0 | 7.0 | ✗ |
| 9 | Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain Poll) | D+4.0 | 7.0 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
15 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
YouGov2012-11-024
Public Policy Polling2012-11-022
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2012-10-213
Impact Research2012-10-197
GS Strategy Group2012-10-083
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2012 Arizona Senate race?
Jeff Flake (R) won, by about 3.0 points (R+3.0).
When was the 2012 Arizona Senate election held?
It was held in November 2012.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.