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Toss-up · 2012 Senate
Arizona Senate
In the 2012 Arizona Senate race, Jeff Flake (R) won by about 3 points.
Actual result
R+3.0
Final polls said
R+3.5
4 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
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Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Moore Information Group | R+3.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Policy Polling | R+5.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+6.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | GS Strategy Group | R+6.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | Tarrance Group | R+6.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 6 | YouGov | R+7.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 7 | Impact Research | D+4.0 | 7.0 | ✗ |
| 8 | Harstad Strategic Research | D+4.0 | 7.0 | ✗ |
| 9 | Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain Poll) | D+4.0 | 7.0 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
15 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
YouGov2012-11-024
Public Policy Polling2012-11-022
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2012-10-213
Impact Research2012-10-197
GS Strategy Group2012-10-083
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2012 Arizona Senate race?
Jeff Flake (R) won, by about 3.0 points (R+3.0).
When was the 2012 Arizona Senate election held?
It was held in November 2012.