Actual result
D+13.0
Final polls said
D+8.2
23 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+11.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Quinnipiac University | D+13.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | ABC News/The Washington Post | D+14.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | D+14.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | D+11.4 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | Ipsos | D+15.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 6 | University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab | D+10.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 7 | Marist College | D+9.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 8 | Zogby Analytics | D+18.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 9 | Angus Reid Global | D+8.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 10 | SurveyUSA | D+8.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 11 | YouGov | D+6.0 | 7.0 | ✓ |
| 12 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+6.0 | 7.0 | ✓ |
| 13 | Suffolk University | D+6.0 | 7.0 | ✓ |
| 14 | Public Policy Polling | D+5.0 | 8.0 | ✓ |
| 15 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | D+5.0 | 8.0 | ✓ |
| 16 | Rasmussen Reports | D+4.0 | 9.0 | ✓ |
| 17 | Gravis Marketing | D+3.0 | 10.0 | ✓ |
| 18 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+3.0 | 10.0 | ✓ |
| 19 | We Ask America | EVEN | 13.0 | ✗ |
Polls (45)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipsos | 2012-11-04 | 769 | D+15.0 | 2 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2012-11-04 | 876 | D+18.0 | 5 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-11-03 | 955 | D+5.0 | 8 |
| YouGov | 2012-11-02 | 1621 | D+6.0 | 7 |
| Angus Reid Global | 2012-11-02 | 525 | D+8.0 | 5 |
| Ipsos | 2012-11-01 | 985 | D+12.0 | 1 |
| Ipsos | 2012-11-01 | 1319 | D+14.0 | 1 |
| Marist College | 2012-10-31 | 1545 | D+9.0 | 4 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2012-10-31 | 800 | D+6.0 | 7 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2012-10-30 | 549 | D+3.0 | 10 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2012-10-29 | 825 | D+6.6 | 6 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2012-10-29 | 1000 | D+4.0 | 9 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-27 | 687 | D+8.0 | 5 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2012-10-27 | 827 | D+9.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2012-10-26 | 595 | D+8.0 | 5 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2012-10-25 | 1073 | D+13.0 | 0 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-25 | 750 | D+3.0 | 10 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2012-10-23 | 625 | D+3.0 | 10 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2012-10-23 | 1001 | D+5.0 | 8 |
| Angus Reid Global | 2012-10-19 | 502 | D+15.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-18 | 750 | D+5.0 | 8 |
| SurveyUSA | 2012-10-17 | 600 | D+8.0 | 5 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-17 | 800 | D+4.0 | 9 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-13 | 791 | D+8.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-11 | 750 | D+1.0 | 12 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2012-10-09 | 800 | D+5.0 | 8 |
| YouGov | 2012-10-08 | 1244 | D+5.0 | 8 |
| Marist College | 2012-10-08 | 988 | D+13.0 | 0 |
| University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab | 2012-10-05 | 653 | D+10.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-04 | 500 | D+11.0 | 2 |
| We Ask America | 2012-10-04 | 1200 | EVEN | 13 |
| Marist College | 2012-09-30 | 890 | D+11.0 | 2 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2012-09-29 | 914 | D+0.1 | 13 |
| Suffolk University | 2012-09-29 | 600 | D+6.0 | 7 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-09-22 | 861 | D+9.0 | 4 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2012-09-21 | 1196 | D+14.0 | 1 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2012-09-21 | 769 | D+14.0 | 1 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2012-09-18 | 800 | D+8.0 | 5 |
| We Ask America | 2012-09-18 | 1230 | D+5.2 | 8 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2012-09-17 | 829 | D+14.0 | 1 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2012-09-15 | 1728 | R+1.2 | 14 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-09-12 | 500 | D+7.0 | 6 |
| YouGov | 2012-09-11 | 1415 | D+5.0 | 8 |
| Marist College | 2012-09-10 | 980 | D+14.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2012-09-08 | 596 | D+11.0 | 2 |