Toss-up · 2012 Senate

Florida Senate

In the 2012 Florida Senate race, Bill Nelson (D) won by about 13 points.

Actual result

D+13.0

Final polls said

D+8.2

23 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Quinnipiac University	D+13.0	0.0	✓
2	ABC News/The Washington Post	D+14.0	1.0	✓
3	Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research	D+14.0	1.0	✓
4	Ipsos	D+15.0	2.0	✓
5	University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab	D+10.0	3.0	✓
6	Marist College	D+9.0	4.0	✓
7	Zogby Analytics	D+18.0	5.0	✓
8	Angus Reid Global	D+8.0	5.0	✓
9	SurveyUSA	D+8.0	5.0	✓
10	YouGov	D+6.0	7.0	✓
11	Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy	D+6.0	7.0	✓
12	Suffolk University	D+6.0	7.0	✓
13	Public Policy Polling	D+5.0	8.0	✓
14	Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.	D+5.0	8.0	✓
15	Rasmussen Reports	D+4.0	9.0	✓
16	Gravis Marketing	D+3.0	10.0	✓
17	Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)	D+3.0	10.0	✓
18	We Ask America	EVEN	13.0	✗