Actual result
D+34.7
Final polls said
D+30.8
6 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+30.7
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+30.7 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | D+30.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | D+30.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | YouGov | D+28.0 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+43.0 | 8.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+23.0 | 11.7 | ✓ |
Polls (13)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2012-11-02 | 790 | D+28.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2012-11-02 | 556 | D+30.0 | 5 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-11-02 | 1164 | D+30.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2012-10-27 | 574 | D+31.0 | 4 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2012-10-24 | 800 | D+43.0 | 8 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-21 | 500 | D+23.0 | 12 |
| SurveyUSA | 2012-10-13 | 550 | D+28.0 | 7 |
| YouGov | 2012-10-08 | 683 | D+23.0 | 12 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-07 | 937 | D+26.0 | 9 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2012-09-18 | 800 | D+29.0 | 6 |
| YouGov | 2012-09-11 | 816 | D+15.0 | 20 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-09-10 | 824 | D+19.0 | 16 |
| SurveyUSA | 2012-09-08 | 551 | D+21.0 | 14 |