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Toss-up · 2012 Senate
Missouri Senate
In the 2012 Missouri Senate race, Claire McCaskill (D) won by about 16 points.
Actual result
D+15.7
Final polls said
D+8.8
10 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+15.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Kiley & Company | D+14.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Harstad Strategic Research | D+12.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | YouGov | D+10.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+8.0 | 7.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | Public Policy Polling | D+4.0 | 11.7 | ✓ |
| 7 | We Ask America | D+3.4 | 12.3 | ✓ |
| 8 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+2.0 | 13.7 | ✓ |
| 9 | Gravis Marketing | R+3.6 | 19.3 | ✗ |
| 10 | Clout Research | R+4.2 | 19.9 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
22 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
YouGov2012-11-026
Public Policy Polling2012-11-0212
SurveyUSA2012-10-311
We Ask America2012-10-3012
Kiley & Company2012-10-242
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2012 Missouri Senate race?
Claire McCaskill (D) won, by about 15.7 points (D+15.7).
When was the 2012 Missouri Senate election held?
It was held in November 2012.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.