Actual result
D+15.7
Final polls said
D+8.8
10 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+6.1
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+15.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Kiley & Company | D+14.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Harstad Strategic Research | D+12.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | YouGov | D+10.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+8.0 | 7.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | D+6.1 | 9.6 | ✓ |
| 7 | Public Policy Polling | D+4.0 | 11.7 | ✓ |
| 8 | We Ask America | D+3.4 | 12.3 | ✓ |
| 9 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+2.0 | 13.7 | ✓ |
| 10 | Gravis Marketing | R+3.6 | 19.3 | ✗ |
| 11 | Clout Research | R+4.2 | 19.9 | ✗ |
Polls (22)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2012-11-02 | 779 | D+10.0 | 6 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-11-02 | 835 | D+4.0 | 12 |
| SurveyUSA | 2012-10-31 | 589 | D+15.0 | 1 |
| We Ask America | 2012-10-30 | 1217 | D+3.4 | 12 |
| Kiley & Company | 2012-10-24 | 600 | D+14.0 | 2 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2012-10-24 | 625 | D+2.0 | 14 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-20 | 582 | D+6.0 | 10 |
| Kiley & Company | 2012-10-18 | 679 | D+14.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-17 | 500 | D+8.0 | 8 |
| Harstad Strategic Research | 2012-10-16 | 603 | D+12.0 | 4 |
| Clout Research | 2012-10-12 | 1000 | R+4.2 | 20 |
| YouGov | 2012-10-08 | 546 | D+5.0 | 11 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-02 | 700 | D+6.0 | 10 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-02 | 500 | D+6.0 | 10 |
| Clout Research | 2012-09-30 | 675 | R+1.9 | 18 |
| Kiley & Company | 2012-09-30 | 600 | D+9.0 | 7 |
| We Ask America | 2012-09-26 | 1145 | D+0.8 | 15 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2012-09-16 | 1952 | R+3.6 | 19 |
| YouGov | 2012-09-11 | 734 | D+7.0 | 9 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-09-11 | 500 | D+6.0 | 10 |
| Clout Research | 2012-09-10 | 850 | R+4.9 | 21 |
| Kiley & Company | 2012-09-10 | 600 | D+6.0 | 10 |