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Toss-up · 2012 Senate
Missouri Senate
In the 2012 Missouri Senate race, Claire McCaskill (D) won by about 16 points.
Actual result
D+15.7
Final polls said
D+8.8
10 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+15.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Kiley & Company | D+14.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Harstad Strategic Research | D+12.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | YouGov | D+10.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+8.0 | 7.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | Public Policy Polling | D+4.0 | 11.7 | ✓ |
| 7 | We Ask America | D+3.4 | 12.3 | ✓ |
| 8 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+2.0 | 13.7 | ✓ |
| 9 | Gravis Marketing | R+3.6 | 19.3 | ✗ |
| 10 | Clout Research | R+4.2 | 19.9 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
22 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
YouGov2012-11-026
Public Policy Polling2012-11-0212
SurveyUSA2012-10-311
We Ask America2012-10-3012
Kiley & Company2012-10-242
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2012 Missouri Senate race?
Claire McCaskill (D) won, by about 15.7 points (D+15.7).
When was the 2012 Missouri Senate election held?
It was held in November 2012.