Actual result
D+3.7
Final polls said
D+0.4
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+0.5
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | D+2.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Global Strategy Group | D+2.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+1.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+1.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | D+0.5 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | Montana State University Billings | R+2.9 | 6.6 | ✗ |
| 7 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+4.0 | 7.7 | ✗ |
Polls (11)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-11-02 | 836 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2012-10-30 | 679 | R+4.0 | 8 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-29 | 500 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2012-10-28 | 807 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-15 | 806 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-14 | 500 | EVEN | 4 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-09 | 737 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Montana State University Billings | 2012-09-29 | 477 | R+2.9 | 7 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2012-09-24 | 606 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2012-09-18 | 625 | R+3.0 | 7 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-09-10 | 656 | D+2.0 | 2 |