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Toss-up · 2012 Senate
Montana Senate
In the 2012 Montana Senate race, Jon Tester (D) won by about 4 points.
Actual result
D+3.7
Final polls said
D+0.4
5 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
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Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | D+2.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Global Strategy Group | D+2.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+1.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+1.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | Montana State University Billings | R+2.9 | 6.6 | ✗ |
| 6 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+4.0 | 7.7 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
11 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Public Policy Polling2012-11-022
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy2012-10-308
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2012-10-293
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group2012-10-283
Public Policy Polling2012-10-152
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2012 Montana Senate race?
Jon Tester (D) won, by about 3.7 points (D+3.7).
When was the 2012 Montana Senate election held?
It was held in November 2012.