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Toss-up · 2012 Senate
Montana Senate
In the 2012 Montana Senate race, Jon Tester (D) won by about 4 points.
Actual result
D+3.7
Final polls said
D+0.4
5 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
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Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | D+2.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Global Strategy Group | D+2.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+1.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+1.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | Montana State University Billings | R+2.9 | 6.6 | ✗ |
| 6 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+4.0 | 7.7 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
11 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Public Policy Polling2012-11-022
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy2012-10-308
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2012-10-293
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group2012-10-283
Public Policy Polling2012-10-152
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2012 Montana Senate race?
Jon Tester (D) won, by about 3.7 points (D+3.7).
When was the 2012 Montana Senate election held?
It was held in November 2012.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.