Actual result
D+0.9
Final polls said
EVEN
4 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+3.1
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+2.0 | 2.9 | ✗ |
| 2 | Mellman Group | D+4.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | DFM Research | D+4.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+3.1 | 4.0 | ✗ |
| 5 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+5.0 | 5.9 | ✗ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2012-10-27 | 625 | R+2.0 | 3 |
| Mellman Group | 2012-10-23 | 600 | D+4.0 | 3 |
| Mellman Group | 2012-10-18 | 600 | D+3.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-17 | 600 | R+5.0 | 6 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2012-10-04 | 625 | EVEN | 1 |
| DFM Research | 2012-09-26 | 600 | D+4.0 | 3 |