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Toss-up · 2012 Senate
Virginia Senate
In the 2012 Virginia Senate race, Tim Kaine (D) won by about 6 points.
Actual result
D+5.9
Final polls said
D+1.8
23 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | D+6.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | ABC News/The Washington Post | D+7.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Old Dominion University | D+7.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Quinnipiac University | D+4.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+4.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 6 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | D+4.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 7 | Ipsos | D+3.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 8 | Marist College | D+3.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 9 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+2.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 10 | Zogby Analytics | D+1.5 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 11 | YouGov | EVEN | 5.9 | ✗ |
| 12 | Rasmussen Reports | EVEN | 5.9 | ✗ |
| 13 | Suffolk University | EVEN | 5.9 | ✗ |
| 14 | We Ask America | R+0.8 | 6.7 | ✗ |
| 15 | McLaughlin & Associates | R+1.0 | 6.9 | ✗ |
| 16 | Gravis Marketing | R+2.0 | 7.9 | ✗ |
| 17 | Clout Research | R+3.3 | 9.2 | ✗ |
| 18 | Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research | R+5.0 | 10.9 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
44 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Zogby Analytics2012-11-044
Ipsos2012-11-043
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2012-11-044
Public Policy Polling2012-11-030
YouGov2012-11-026
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2012 Virginia Senate race?
Tim Kaine (D) won, by about 5.9 points (D+5.9).
When was the 2012 Virginia Senate election held?
It was held in November 2012.