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Toss-up · 2012 Senate
Virginia Senate
In the 2012 Virginia Senate race, Tim Kaine (D) won by about 6 points.
Actual result
D+5.9
Final polls said
D+1.8
23 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | D+6.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | ABC News/The Washington Post | D+7.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Old Dominion University | D+7.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Quinnipiac University | D+4.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+4.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 6 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | D+4.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 7 | Ipsos | D+3.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 8 | Marist College | D+3.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 9 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+2.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 10 | Zogby Analytics | D+1.5 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 11 | YouGov | EVEN | 5.9 | ✗ |
| 12 | Rasmussen Reports | EVEN | 5.9 | ✗ |
| 13 | Suffolk University | EVEN | 5.9 | ✗ |
| 14 | We Ask America | R+0.8 | 6.7 | ✗ |
| 15 | McLaughlin & Associates | R+1.0 | 6.9 | ✗ |
| 16 | Gravis Marketing | R+2.0 | 7.9 | ✗ |
| 17 | Clout Research | R+3.3 | 9.2 | ✗ |
| 18 | Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research | R+5.0 | 10.9 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
44 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Zogby Analytics2012-11-044
Ipsos2012-11-043
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2012-11-044
Public Policy Polling2012-11-030
YouGov2012-11-026
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2012 Virginia Senate race?
Tim Kaine (D) won, by about 5.9 points (D+5.9).
When was the 2012 Virginia Senate election held?
It was held in November 2012.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.