Actual result
D+20.9
Final polls said
D+21.2
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+22.1
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+22.1 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | D+18.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | D+18.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyUSA | D+16.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+15.0 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 6 | University of Washington Center for Survey Research | D+27.5 | 6.6 | ✓ |
Polls (9)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2012-11-02 | 837 | D+18.0 | 3 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-11-02 | 932 | D+18.0 | 3 |
| University of Washington Center for Survey Research | 2012-10-24 | 632 | D+27.5 | 7 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-14 | 500 | D+15.0 | 6 |
| University of Washington Center for Survey Research | 2012-10-09 | 644 | D+22.3 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2012-10-08 | 748 | D+19.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-09-26 | 500 | D+20.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2012-09-11 | 880 | D+14.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2012-09-08 | 524 | D+16.0 | 5 |