Actual result
D+2.2
Final polls said
D+1.0
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+0.2
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | D+1.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+0.2 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Hellenthal & Associates | R+1.0 | 3.2 | ✗ |
| 4 | Big Village | D+6.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | Rasmussen Reports | D+7.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 6 | Hays Research Group | D+7.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 7 | YouGov | R+3.0 | 5.2 | ✗ |
| 8 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | R+5.0 | 7.2 | ✗ |
| 9 | Hickman Analytics | R+8.0 | 10.2 | ✗ |
Polls (12)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-11-01 | 1052 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-10-29 | 887 | D+7.0 | 5 |
| YouGov | 2014-10-20 | 561 | R+3.0 | 5 |
| Hellenthal & Associates | 2014-10-18 | 403 | R+1.0 | 3 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-10-10 | 700 | D+9.0 | 7 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2014-10-06 | 706 | R+5.0 | 7 |
| Big Village | 2014-10-03 | 704 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| Hickman Analytics | 2014-09-29 | 400 | R+8.0 | 10 |
| YouGov | 2014-09-26 | 593 | D+5.0 | 3 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-09-23 | 713 | D+5.0 | 3 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-09-20 | 880 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Hays Research Group | 2014-09-13 | 500 | D+7.0 | 5 |