Actual result
R+11.8
Final polls said
R+7.3
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+7.3
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | YouGov | R+10.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Adrian Gray Consulting | R+8.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+7.3 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Polling Company Inc. | R+7.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | Tarrance Group | R+7.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 6 | Rasmussen Reports | R+5.0 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 7 | Keating Research | R+2.0 | 9.8 | ✓ |
| 8 | McLaughlin & Associates | R+1.0 | 10.8 | ✓ |
| 9 | Moore Information Group | D+3.0 | 14.8 | ✗ |
Polls (11)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Polling Company Inc. | 2014-10-21 | 601 | R+7.0 | 5 |
| YouGov | 2014-10-20 | 2621 | R+10.0 | 2 |
| Tarrance Group | 2014-10-15 | 500 | R+7.0 | 5 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-10-15 | 1056 | R+5.0 | 7 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2014-10-13 | 500 | R+1.0 | 11 |
| Adrian Gray Consulting | 2014-10-08 | 600 | R+8.0 | 4 |
| The Polling Company Inc. | 2014-10-07 | 600 | R+9.0 | 3 |
| Moore Information Group | 2014-10-07 | 400 | D+3.0 | 15 |
| YouGov | 2014-09-26 | 2808 | R+11.0 | 1 |
| Keating Research | 2014-09-18 | 600 | R+2.0 | 10 |
| Tarrance Group | 2014-09-16 | 505 | R+6.0 | 6 |