Actual result
D+2.3
Final polls said
R+0.1
7 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+0.3
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | D+3.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Quinnipiac University | D+1.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Rasmussen Reports | D+1.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | YouGov | EVEN | 2.3 | ✗ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | R+0.3 | 2.6 | ✗ |
Polls (11)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-10-31 | 931 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2014-10-30 | 926 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-10-29 | 977 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2014-10-24 | 838 | EVEN | 2 |
| YouGov | 2014-10-20 | 1267 | EVEN | 2 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2014-10-17 | 1010 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-10-15 | 980 | R+7.0 | 9 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-10-04 | 861 | D+8.0 | 6 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2014-10-03 | 1085 | EVEN | 2 |
| YouGov | 2014-09-26 | 1284 | EVEN | 2 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2014-09-05 | 1304 | R+6.0 | 8 |