Actual result
R+1.1
Final polls said
D+0.1
18 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
D+1.0
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Øptimus Analytics | R+1.5 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Policy Polling | EVEN | 1.1 | ✗ |
| 3 | YouGov | EVEN | 1.1 | ✗ |
| 4 | University of Florida Bob Graham Center for Public Service | EVEN | 1.1 | ✗ |
| 5 | Rasmussen Reports | EVEN | 1.1 | ✗ |
| 6 | Big Village | EVEN | 1.1 | ✗ |
| 7 | SEA Polling & Strategic Design | R+3.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 8 | The Tyson Group | R+3.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 9 | VotePredictor | D+1.0 | 2.1 | ✗ |
| 10 | Quinnipiac University | D+1.0 | 2.1 | ✗ |
| 11 | McLaughlin & Associates | D+1.0 | 2.1 | ✗ |
| 12 | St. Pete Polls | D+1.4 | 2.5 | ✗ |
| 13 | Gravis Marketing | D+2.0 | 3.1 | ✗ |
| 14 | Cherry Communications | R+5.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 15 | Saint Leo University Polling Institute | D+3.0 | 4.1 | ✗ |
| 16 | SurveyUSA | D+4.0 | 5.1 | ✗ |
| 17 | University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab | D+5.0 | 6.1 | ✗ |
| 18 | Zogby Analytics | D+7.0 | 8.1 | ✗ |
Polls (42)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Øptimus Analytics | 2014-11-01 | 2559 | R+1.5 | 0 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-11-01 | 1198 | EVEN | 1 |
| SEA Polling & Strategic Design | 2014-10-30 | 1800 | R+3.0 | 2 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2014-10-30 | 817 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2014-10-30 | 688 | D+7.0 | 8 |
| Cherry Communications | 2014-10-28 | 508 | R+5.0 | 4 |
| YouGov | 2014-10-28 | 1795 | EVEN | 1 |
| SEA Polling & Strategic Design | 2014-10-28 | 800 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| University of Florida Bob Graham Center for Public Service | 2014-10-26 | 850 | EVEN | 1 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2014-10-24 | 817 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| Øptimus Analytics | 2014-10-23 | 4893 | R+2.5 | 1 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2014-10-23 | 861 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2014-10-20 | 5422 | R+1.0 | 0 |
| Saint Leo University Polling Institute | 2014-10-18 | 500 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2014-10-17 | 984 | EVEN | 1 |
| St. Pete Polls | 2014-10-17 | 1855 | D+1.4 | 2 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-10-16 | 1000 | EVEN | 1 |
| Øptimus Analytics | 2014-10-16 | 4701 | R+0.9 | 0 |
| SurveyUSA | 2014-10-12 | 566 | D+4.0 | 5 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2014-10-11 | 1023 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| Big Village | 2014-10-11 | 610 | EVEN | 1 |
| St. Pete Polls | 2014-10-10 | 3128 | R+1.0 | 0 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2014-10-09 | 1000 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| Øptimus Analytics | 2014-10-09 | 6384 | D+1.1 | 2 |
| University of Florida Bob Graham Center for Public Service | 2014-10-09 | 781 | EVEN | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2014-10-04 | 594 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab | 2014-10-03 | 471 | D+5.0 | 6 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-10-03 | 1161 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| Øptimus Analytics | 2014-10-02 | 6494 | D+1.1 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2014-09-28 | 584 | D+6.0 | 7 |
| YouGov | 2014-09-26 | 5689 | R+3.0 | 2 |
| Øptimus Analytics | 2014-09-25 | 3356 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2014-09-21 | 588 | R+1.0 | 0 |
| Cherry Communications | 2014-09-20 | 813 | R+4.0 | 3 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2014-09-19 | 991 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| Øptimus Analytics | 2014-09-18 | 6079 | R+0.1 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2014-09-14 | 571 | R+5.0 | 4 |
| Øptimus Analytics | 2014-09-11 | 3660 | R+0.5 | 1 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-09-09 | 1000 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2014-09-07 | 576 | R+1.0 | 0 |
| The Tyson Group | 2014-09-06 | 1000 | R+3.0 | 2 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-09-06 | 818 | D+3.0 | 4 |