Actual result
R+3.8
Final polls said
D+2.8
4 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
D+2.3
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WPA Intelligence | R+5.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies Inc. | D+2.0 | 5.8 | ✗ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+2.3 | 6.0 | ✗ |
| 4 | Gravis Marketing | D+3.0 | 6.8 | ✗ |
| 5 | OpinionWorks | D+7.0 | 10.8 | ✗ |
| 6 | The Washington Post/University of Maryland Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement | D+9.0 | 12.8 | ✗ |
| 7 | YouGov | D+13.0 | 16.8 | ✗ |
Polls (9)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPA Intelligence | 2014-10-26 | 504 | R+5.0 | 1 |
| Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies Inc. | 2014-10-22 | 822 | D+2.0 | 6 |
| YouGov | 2014-10-20 | 1086 | D+13.0 | 17 |
| WPA Intelligence | 2014-10-19 | 500 | D+1.0 | 5 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2014-10-08 | 784 | D+3.0 | 7 |
| OpinionWorks | 2014-10-06 | 800 | D+7.0 | 11 |
| The Washington Post/University of Maryland Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement | 2014-10-04 | 549 | D+9.0 | 13 |
| YouGov | 2014-09-26 | 1096 | D+17.0 | 21 |
| Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies Inc. | 2014-09-20 | 805 | D+4.0 | 8 |