Actual result
R+30.6
Final polls said
R+20.7
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+21.1
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Columbus Dispatch | R+28.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Quinnipiac University | R+22.0 | 8.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+21.1 | 9.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | Rasmussen Reports | R+20.0 | 10.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | YouGov | R+19.0 | 11.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | R+15.0 | 15.6 | ✓ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2014-10-29 | 803 | R+15.0 | 16 |
| Columbus Dispatch | 2014-10-26 | 1009 | R+28.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2014-10-20 | 2728 | R+19.0 | 12 |
| YouGov | 2014-09-26 | 3082 | R+16.0 | 15 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2014-09-26 | 999 | R+22.0 | 9 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-09-08 | 780 | R+20.0 | 11 |
| Columbus Dispatch | 2014-09-07 | 1185 | R+30.0 | 1 |