Actual result
D+4.5
Final polls said
D+5.6
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+2.7
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | YouGov | D+5.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Rasmussen Reports | D+5.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Fleming & Associates | D+6.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | D+2.7 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | Brown University A. Alfred Taubman Center for American Politics and Policy | D+0.6 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 6 | Public Opinion Strategies | EVEN | 4.5 | ✗ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brown University A. Alfred Taubman Center for American Politics and Policy | 2014-10-25 | 500 | D+0.6 | 4 |
| YouGov | 2014-10-20 | 866 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| Brown University A. Alfred Taubman Center for American Politics and Policy | 2014-10-16 | 1129 | D+11.1 | 7 |
| Fleming & Associates | 2014-10-08 | 505 | D+6.0 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2014-09-26 | 724 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-09-24 | 750 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2014-09-10 | 500 | EVEN | 4 |