Actual result
R+45.0
Final polls said
R+32.0
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+32.0
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | R+39.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Marist College | R+39.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+36.0 | 9.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+32.0 | 13.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | YouGov | R+26.0 | 19.0 | ✓ |
| 6 | Nielson Brothers Polling | R+25.0 | 20.0 | ✓ |
| 7 | SurveyUSA | R+20.0 | 25.0 | ✓ |
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2014-10-26 | 429 | R+39.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2014-10-23 | 611 | R+20.0 | 25 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2014-10-22 | 800 | R+36.0 | 9 |
| Marist College | 2014-10-21 | 730 | R+39.0 | 6 |
| YouGov | 2014-10-20 | 527 | R+26.0 | 19 |
| YouGov | 2014-09-26 | 382 | R+26.0 | 19 |
| Nielson Brothers Polling | 2014-09-23 | 607 | R+25.0 | 20 |
| SurveyUSA | 2014-09-05 | 510 | R+20.0 | 25 |