Actual result
D+13.8
Final polls said
D+2.1
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+1.0
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Normington, Petts & Associates | D+12.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+11.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | MassINC Polling Group | D+8.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | D+8.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | D+1.0 | 12.8 | ✓ |
| 6 | Tarrance Group | R+1.0 | 14.8 | ✗ |
| 7 | Øptimus Analytics | R+1.8 | 15.6 | ✗ |
| 8 | Emerson College | R+2.0 | 15.8 | ✗ |
| 9 | Voter/Consumer Research | R+2.0 | 15.8 | ✗ |
Polls (13)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | 2014-10-28 | 400 | R+2.0 | 16 |
| Øptimus Analytics | 2014-10-24 | 1807 | R+1.8 | 16 |
| Øptimus Analytics | 2014-10-18 | 2994 | D+1.3 | 13 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2014-10-16 | 406 | D+11.0 | 3 |
| Emerson College | 2014-10-13 | 400 | R+3.0 | 17 |
| Voter/Consumer Research | 2014-10-08 | 400 | R+2.0 | 16 |
| Øptimus Analytics | 2014-10-08 | 6929 | R+2.1 | 16 |
| Normington, Petts & Associates | 2014-10-05 | 400 | D+12.0 | 2 |
| Emerson College | 2014-09-28 | 429 | R+2.0 | 16 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2014-09-26 | 400 | D+10.0 | 4 |
| Tarrance Group | 2014-09-24 | 400 | R+1.0 | 15 |
| MassINC Polling Group | 2014-09-23 | 400 | D+8.0 | 6 |
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | 2014-09-13 | 432 | D+8.0 | 6 |