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Toss-up · 2014 House
Massachusetts House
In the 2014 Massachusetts House race, Seth Moulton (D) won by about 14 points.
Actual result
D+13.8
Final polls said
D+2.1
4 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Normington, Petts & Associates | D+12.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+11.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | MassINC Polling Group | D+8.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | D+8.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | Tarrance Group | R+1.0 | 14.8 | ✗ |
| 6 | Øptimus Analytics | R+1.8 | 15.6 | ✗ |
| 7 | Emerson College | R+2.0 | 15.8 | ✗ |
| 8 | Voter/Consumer Research | R+2.0 | 15.8 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
13 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Emerson College2014-10-2816
Øptimus Analytics2014-10-2416
Øptimus Analytics2014-10-1813
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group2014-10-163
Emerson College2014-10-1317
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2014 Massachusetts House race?
Seth Moulton (D) won, by about 13.8 points (D+13.8).
When was the 2014 Massachusetts House election held?
It was held in November 2014.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.