Actual result
R+9.6
Final polls said
R+5.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+7.0
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | R+10.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | National Research | R+7.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+7.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy | R+5.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | GBAO | R+3.0 | 6.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | D+1.0 | 10.6 | ✗ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy | 2014-10-27 | 617 | R+5.0 | 5 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2014-10-11 | 423 | R+10.0 | 0 |
| National Research | 2014-10-01 | 400 | R+7.0 | 3 |
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | 2014-09-27 | 603 | D+1.0 | 11 |
| Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy | 2014-09-13 | 606 | EVEN | 10 |
| GBAO | 2014-09-09 | 400 | R+3.0 | 7 |