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Toss-up · 2014 House
New Jersey House
In the 2014 New Jersey House race, Tom MacArthur (R) won by about 10 points.
Actual result
R+9.6
Final polls said
R+5.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
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Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | R+10.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | National Research | R+7.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy | R+5.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | GBAO | R+3.0 | 6.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | D+1.0 | 10.6 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
6 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy2014-10-275
Monmouth University Polling Institute2014-10-110
National Research2014-10-013
DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department2014-09-2711
Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy2014-09-1310
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2014 New Jersey House race?
Tom MacArthur (R) won, by about 9.6 points (R+9.6).
When was the 2014 New Jersey House election held?
It was held in November 2014.