Actual result
R+1.9
Final polls said
R+2.1
20 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+1.3
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Quinnipiac University | R+2.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | R+2.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Ipsos | R+2.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+1.3 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | Marist College | R+1.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 6 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | R+1.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 7 | Public Policy Polling | R+3.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 8 | Vox Populi Polling | R+3.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 9 | YouGov | R+0.8 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 10 | GQR | EVEN | 1.9 | ✗ |
| 11 | Big Village | R+4.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 12 | Keating Research | D+1.0 | 2.9 | ✗ |
| 13 | Strategies 360 | D+1.0 | 2.9 | ✗ |
| 14 | Harstad Strategic Research | D+1.0 | 2.9 | ✗ |
| 15 | Gravis Marketing | R+5.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 16 | Mellman Group | D+2.0 | 3.9 | ✗ |
| 17 | Rasmussen Reports | R+6.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 18 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | R+6.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 19 | ccAdvertising | R+6.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 20 | Benenson Strategy Group | D+3.0 | 4.9 | ✗ |
| 21 | Suffolk University | R+7.4 | 5.5 | ✓ |
Polls (35)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-11-01 | 739 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2014-10-30 | 815 | R+2.0 | 0 |
| YouGov | 2014-10-28 | 1417 | R+0.8 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2014-10-28 | 618 | R+2.0 | 0 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-10-28 | 573 | EVEN | 2 |
| Vox Populi Polling | 2014-10-26 | 642 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2014-10-24 | 844 | R+7.0 | 5 |
| Keating Research | 2014-10-22 | 1005 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Strategies 360 | 2014-10-22 | 760 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-10-22 | 966 | R+6.0 | 4 |
| Harstad Strategic Research | 2014-10-21 | 1004 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Suffolk University | 2014-10-20 | 500 | R+7.4 | 5 |
| YouGov | 2014-10-20 | 1567 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Marist College | 2014-10-20 | 755 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2014-10-19 | 431 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2014-10-18 | 974 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-10-18 | 778 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| Ipsos | 2014-10-17 | 1099 | R+2.0 | 0 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2014-10-16 | 695 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| Benenson Strategy Group | 2014-10-15 | 600 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| Mellman Group | 2014-10-14 | 800 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| Big Village | 2014-10-11 | 665 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2014-10-11 | 570 | R+2.0 | 0 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2014-10-10 | 988 | R+6.0 | 4 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2014-10-06 | 739 | R+6.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2014-10-06 | 800 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-09-29 | 950 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| GQR | 2014-09-26 | 679 | EVEN | 2 |
| YouGov | 2014-09-26 | 1634 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| ccAdvertising | 2014-09-20 | 2094 | R+6.0 | 4 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-09-20 | 652 | R+2.0 | 0 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2014-09-16 | 657 | R+7.0 | 5 |
| Suffolk University | 2014-09-15 | 500 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2014-09-12 | 1211 | R+8.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2014-09-09 | 664 | D+4.0 | 6 |