Toss-up · 2014 Senate

Colorado Senate

In the 2014 Colorado Senate race, Cory Gardner (R) won by about 2 points.

Actual result

R+1.9

Final polls said

R+2.1

20 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Quinnipiac University	R+2.0	0.1	✓
2	SurveyUSA	R+2.0	0.1	✓
3	Ipsos	R+2.0	0.1	✓
4	Marist College	R+1.0	0.9	✓
5	Monmouth University Polling Institute	R+1.0	0.9	✓
6	Public Policy Polling	R+3.0	1.1	✓
7	Vox Populi Polling	R+3.0	1.1	✓
8	YouGov	R+0.8	1.1	✓
9	GQR	EVEN	1.9	✗
10	Big Village	R+4.0	2.1	✓
11	Keating Research	D+1.0	2.9	✗
12	Strategies 360	D+1.0	2.9	✗
13	Harstad Strategic Research	D+1.0	2.9	✗
14	Gravis Marketing	R+5.0	3.1	✓
15	Mellman Group	D+2.0	3.9	✗
16	Rasmussen Reports	R+6.0	4.1	✓
17	Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research	R+6.0	4.1	✓
18	ccAdvertising	R+6.0	4.1	✓
19	Benenson Strategy Group	D+3.0	4.9	✗
20	Suffolk University	R+7.4	5.5	✓