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Toss-up · 2014 Senate
Iowa Senate
In the 2014 Iowa Senate race, Joni K. Ernst (R) won by about 8 points.
Actual result
R+8.3
Final polls said
R+1.6
21 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magellan Strategies | R+9.2 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | Selzer & Co. | R+7.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Gravis Marketing | R+6.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Suffolk University | R+3.8 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | Public Policy Polling | R+3.0 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | Marist College | R+3.0 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 7 | Øptimus Analytics | R+2.9 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 8 | Big Village | R+2.0 | 6.3 | ✓ |
| 9 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | R+1.0 | 7.3 | ✓ |
| 10 | Rasmussen Reports | R+1.0 | 7.3 | ✓ |
| 11 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | R+1.0 | 7.3 | ✓ |
| 12 | Quinnipiac University | EVEN | 8.3 | ✗ |
| 13 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | EVEN | 8.3 | ✗ |
| 14 | Ipsos | EVEN | 8.3 | ✗ |
| 15 | Harstad Strategic Research | EVEN | 8.3 | ✗ |
| 16 | YouGov | D+1.0 | 9.3 | ✗ |
| 17 | GQR | D+1.0 | 9.3 | ✗ |
| 18 | Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center | D+1.1 | 9.4 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
44 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Public Policy Polling2014-11-025
Public Policy Polling2014-10-317
Selzer & Co.2014-10-301
Øptimus Analytics2014-10-305
Quinnipiac University2014-10-308
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2014 Iowa Senate race?
Joni K. Ernst (R) won, by about 8.3 points (R+8.3).
When was the 2014 Iowa Senate election held?
It was held in November 2014.