Toss-up · 2014 Senate

Iowa Senate

In the 2014 Iowa Senate race, Joni K. Ernst (R) won by about 8 points.

Joni K. Ernst· Incumbent · voting record →

Actual result

R+8.3

Final polls said

R+1.6

21 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Magellan Strategies	R+9.2	0.9	✓
2	Selzer & Co.	R+7.0	1.3	✓
3	Gravis Marketing	R+6.0	2.3	✓
4	Suffolk University	R+3.8	4.5	✓
5	Public Policy Polling	R+3.0	5.3	✓
6	Marist College	R+3.0	5.3	✓
7	Øptimus Analytics	R+2.9	5.4	✓
8	Big Village	R+2.0	6.3	✓
9	Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research	R+1.0	7.3	✓
10	Rasmussen Reports	R+1.0	7.3	✓
11	Monmouth University Polling Institute	R+1.0	7.3	✓
12	Quinnipiac University	EVEN	8.3	✗
13	Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group	EVEN	8.3	✗
14	Ipsos	EVEN	8.3	✗
15	Harstad Strategic Research	EVEN	8.3	✗
16	YouGov	D+1.0	9.3	✗
17	GQR	D+1.0	9.3	✗
18	Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center	D+1.1	9.4	✗