Actual result
R+8.3
Final polls said
R+1.6
21 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+1.6
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magellan Strategies | R+9.2 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | Selzer & Co. | R+7.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Gravis Marketing | R+6.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Suffolk University | R+3.8 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | Public Policy Polling | R+3.0 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | Marist College | R+3.0 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 7 | Øptimus Analytics | R+2.9 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 8 | Big Village | R+2.0 | 6.3 | ✓ |
| 9 | VotePredictor | R+1.6 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 10 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | R+1.0 | 7.3 | ✓ |
| 11 | Rasmussen Reports | R+1.0 | 7.3 | ✓ |
| 12 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | R+1.0 | 7.3 | ✓ |
| 13 | Quinnipiac University | EVEN | 8.3 | ✗ |
| 14 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | EVEN | 8.3 | ✗ |
| 15 | Ipsos | EVEN | 8.3 | ✗ |
| 16 | Harstad Strategic Research | EVEN | 8.3 | ✗ |
| 17 | YouGov | D+1.0 | 9.3 | ✗ |
| 18 | GQR | D+1.0 | 9.3 | ✗ |
| 19 | Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center | D+1.1 | 9.4 | ✗ |
Polls (44)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-11-02 | 1265 | R+3.0 | 5 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-10-31 | 617 | R+1.0 | 7 |
| Selzer & Co. | 2014-10-30 | 708 | R+7.0 | 1 |
| Øptimus Analytics | 2014-10-30 | 2421 | R+2.9 | 5 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2014-10-30 | 778 | EVEN | 8 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2014-10-29 | 911 | R+1.0 | 7 |
| Big Village | 2014-10-29 | 647 | R+2.0 | 6 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-10-29 | 990 | R+1.0 | 7 |
| YouGov | 2014-10-28 | 1112 | D+1.0 | 9 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2014-10-26 | 802 | EVEN | 8 |
| Ipsos | 2014-10-26 | 1129 | EVEN | 8 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2014-10-24 | 817 | R+4.0 | 4 |
| Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center | 2014-10-23 | 1121 | D+1.1 | 9 |
| Øptimus Analytics | 2014-10-23 | 2755 | R+3.1 | 5 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2014-10-21 | 964 | R+6.0 | 2 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2014-10-20 | 423 | R+1.0 | 7 |
| YouGov | 2014-10-20 | 2322 | EVEN | 8 |
| Marist College | 2014-10-20 | 772 | R+3.0 | 5 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2014-10-18 | 964 | R+2.0 | 6 |
| Øptimus Analytics | 2014-10-16 | 2455 | R+0.6 | 8 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-10-15 | 714 | D+1.0 | 9 |
| Suffolk University | 2014-10-13 | 500 | R+3.8 | 5 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2014-10-10 | 967 | R+2.0 | 6 |
| Øptimus Analytics | 2014-10-09 | 3477 | R+4.1 | 4 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-10-09 | 957 | R+3.0 | 5 |
| Selzer & Co. | 2014-10-05 | 1000 | R+1.0 | 7 |
| Magellan Strategies | 2014-10-03 | 1299 | R+9.2 | 1 |
| Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center | 2014-10-02 | 600 | R+0.3 | 8 |
| Øptimus Analytics | 2014-10-02 | 2631 | R+1.0 | 7 |
| Marist College | 2014-09-29 | 778 | R+2.0 | 6 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2014-09-29 | 522 | R+9.0 | 1 |
| GQR | 2014-09-27 | 800 | D+1.0 | 9 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-09-27 | 1192 | R+2.0 | 6 |
| YouGov | 2014-09-26 | 2359 | D+0.4 | 9 |
| GQR | 2014-09-26 | 679 | R+1.0 | 7 |
| Øptimus Analytics | 2014-09-25 | 2413 | D+0.8 | 9 |
| Harstad Strategic Research | 2014-09-23 | 809 | EVEN | 8 |
| Selzer & Co. | 2014-09-23 | 546 | R+6.0 | 2 |
| Øptimus Analytics | 2014-09-18 | 2225 | R+1.2 | 7 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-09-17 | 750 | EVEN | 8 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2014-09-15 | 600 | EVEN | 8 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2014-09-12 | 1167 | R+6.0 | 2 |
| Øptimus Analytics | 2014-09-11 | 2714 | D+1.7 | 10 |
| Big Village | 2014-09-09 | 608 | D+1.0 | 9 |