Actual result
D+10.8
Final polls said
D+11.8
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+12.8
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southern Illinois University Paul Simon Public Policy Institute | D+10.4 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Policy Polling | D+10.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | McKeon & Associates | D+10.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | D+12.8 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | We Ask America | D+13.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | YouGov | D+13.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 7 | APC Research | D+14.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 8 | Rasmussen Reports | D+14.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 9 | University of Illinois Springfield Survey Research Office | D+15.5 | 4.7 | ✓ |
Polls (10)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-11-01 | 1064 | D+10.0 | 1 |
| McKeon & Associates | 2014-10-28 | 823 | D+10.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2014-10-20 | 3519 | D+13.0 | 2 |
| APC Research | 2014-10-18 | 800 | D+14.0 | 3 |
| We Ask America | 2014-10-06 | 1086 | D+13.0 | 2 |
| University of Illinois Springfield Survey Research Office | 2014-10-05 | 723 | D+15.5 | 5 |
| Southern Illinois University Paul Simon Public Policy Institute | 2014-10-04 | 691 | D+10.4 | 0 |
| YouGov | 2014-09-26 | 3955 | D+12.0 | 1 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-09-24 | 750 | D+14.0 | 3 |
| APC Research | 2014-09-07 | 800 | D+23.0 | 12 |