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Toss-up · 2014 Senate
Illinois Senate
In the 2014 Illinois Senate race, Richard J. Durbin (D) won by about 11 points.
Actual result
D+10.8
Final polls said
D+11.8
4 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southern Illinois University Paul Simon Public Policy Institute | D+10.4 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Policy Polling | D+10.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | McKeon & Associates | D+10.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | We Ask America | D+13.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | YouGov | D+13.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | APC Research | D+14.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 7 | Rasmussen Reports | D+14.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 8 | University of Illinois Springfield Survey Research Office | D+15.5 | 4.7 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
10 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Public Policy Polling2014-11-011
McKeon & Associates2014-10-281
YouGov2014-10-202
APC Research2014-10-183
We Ask America2014-10-062
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2014 Illinois Senate race?
Richard J. Durbin (D) won, by about 10.8 points (D+10.8).
When was the 2014 Illinois Senate election held?
It was held in November 2014.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.