Actual result
D+10.6
Final polls said
R+0.6
10 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+2.0
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Remington Research Group | D+2.0 | 8.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | D+1.3 | 9.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Big Village | D+1.0 | 9.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | EVEN | 10.6 | ✗ |
| 5 | Public Policy Polling | R+1.0 | 11.6 | ✗ |
| 6 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | R+1.0 | 11.6 | ✗ |
| 7 | Marist College | R+1.0 | 11.6 | ✗ |
| 8 | SurveyUSA | R+2.0 | 12.6 | ✗ |
| 9 | Gravis Marketing | R+2.0 | 12.6 | ✗ |
| 10 | VotePredictor | R+2.0 | 12.6 | ✗ |
| 11 | Rasmussen Reports | R+5.0 | 15.6 | ✗ |
| 12 | Suffolk University | R+5.0 | 15.6 | ✗ |
Polls (25)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-11-02 | 963 | R+1.0 | 12 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-10-30 | 752 | D+1.0 | 10 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2014-10-29 | 907 | R+1.0 | 12 |
| YouGov | 2014-10-28 | 1137 | D+1.3 | 9 |
| SurveyUSA | 2014-10-24 | 623 | R+2.0 | 13 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2014-10-20 | 1124 | R+2.0 | 13 |
| YouGov | 2014-10-20 | 1973 | D+4.0 | 7 |
| Marist College | 2014-10-20 | 757 | R+1.0 | 12 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-10-20 | 960 | R+5.0 | 16 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2014-10-18 | 429 | EVEN | 11 |
| Remington Research Group | 2014-10-11 | 1091 | D+2.0 | 9 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-10-11 | 1081 | R+3.0 | 14 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-10-08 | 950 | R+12.0 | 23 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2014-10-06 | 702 | D+5.0 | 6 |
| Big Village | 2014-10-04 | 687 | D+1.0 | 10 |
| SurveyUSA | 2014-10-04 | 549 | R+5.0 | 16 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2014-09-30 | 850 | R+7.0 | 18 |
| Suffolk University | 2014-09-29 | 500 | R+5.0 | 16 |
| Marist College | 2014-09-29 | 636 | R+10.0 | 21 |
| YouGov | 2014-09-26 | 2013 | EVEN | 11 |
| Remington Research Group | 2014-09-23 | 625 | R+8.0 | 19 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-09-16 | 750 | R+5.0 | 16 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2014-09-15 | 604 | D+2.0 | 9 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-09-13 | 1328 | R+7.0 | 18 |
| SurveyUSA | 2014-09-06 | 555 | R+1.0 | 12 |