Actual result
D+10.2
Final polls said
D+11.3
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+12.8
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | YouGov | D+10.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | D+11.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+9.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Rasmussen Reports | D+8.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | D+12.8 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | Public Opinion Strategies | D+7.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
Polls (9)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2014-10-29 | 597 | D+11.0 | 1 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2014-10-21 | 800 | D+9.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2014-10-20 | 2430 | D+10.0 | 0 |
| SurveyUSA | 2014-10-15 | 597 | D+15.0 | 5 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2014-10-06 | 500 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2014-10-01 | 577 | D+18.0 | 8 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-09-29 | 750 | D+8.0 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2014-09-26 | 2562 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2014-09-09 | 800 | D+13.0 | 3 |