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Toss-up · 2014 Senate
North Carolina Senate
In the 2014 North Carolina Senate race, Thomas Roland Tillis (R) won by about 2 points.
Actual result
R+1.6
Final polls said
D+0.5
21 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
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Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Harper Polling | R+2.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Gravis Marketing | R+1.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | High Point University Survey Research Center | R+0.9 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | National Research | EVEN | 1.6 | ✗ |
| 5 | Public Opinion Strategies | EVEN | 1.6 | ✗ |
| 6 | SurveyUSA | EVEN | 1.6 | ✗ |
| 7 | Marist College | EVEN | 1.6 | ✗ |
| 8 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | D+1.0 | 2.6 | ✗ |
| 9 | Rasmussen Reports | D+1.0 | 2.6 | ✗ |
| 10 | Suffolk University | D+1.4 | 3.0 | ✗ |
| 11 | Vox Populi Polling | R+5.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 12 | Public Policy Polling | D+2.0 | 3.6 | ✗ |
| 13 | Big Village | D+2.0 | 3.6 | ✗ |
| 14 | YouGov | D+2.0 | 3.6 | ✗ |
| 15 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+2.0 | 3.6 | ✗ |
| 16 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+3.0 | 4.6 | ✗ |
| 17 | Elon University | D+4.0 | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 18 | GQR | D+4.0 | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 19 | Global Strategy Group | D+4.0 | 5.6 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
40 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Public Policy Polling2014-11-024
Public Policy Polling2014-10-313
Gravis Marketing2014-10-301
National Research2014-10-292
Big Village2014-10-294
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2014 North Carolina Senate race?
Thomas Roland Tillis (R) won, by about 1.6 points (R+1.6).
When was the 2014 North Carolina Senate election held?
It was held in November 2014.