Actual result
R+1.6
Final polls said
D+0.5
21 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
D+2.5
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Harper Polling | R+2.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Gravis Marketing | R+1.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | High Point University Survey Research Center | R+0.9 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | National Research | EVEN | 1.6 | ✗ |
| 5 | Public Opinion Strategies | EVEN | 1.6 | ✗ |
| 6 | SurveyUSA | EVEN | 1.6 | ✗ |
| 7 | Marist College | EVEN | 1.6 | ✗ |
| 8 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | D+1.0 | 2.6 | ✗ |
| 9 | Rasmussen Reports | D+1.0 | 2.6 | ✗ |
| 10 | Suffolk University | D+1.4 | 3.0 | ✗ |
| 11 | Vox Populi Polling | R+5.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 12 | Public Policy Polling | D+2.0 | 3.6 | ✗ |
| 13 | Big Village | D+2.0 | 3.6 | ✗ |
| 14 | YouGov | D+2.0 | 3.6 | ✗ |
| 15 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+2.0 | 3.6 | ✗ |
| 16 | VotePredictor | D+2.5 | 4.0 | ✗ |
| 17 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+3.0 | 4.6 | ✗ |
| 18 | Elon University | D+4.0 | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 19 | GQR | D+4.0 | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 20 | Global Strategy Group | D+4.0 | 5.6 | ✗ |
Polls (40)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-11-02 | 1333 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-10-31 | 738 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2014-10-30 | 1006 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| National Research | 2014-10-29 | 600 | EVEN | 2 |
| Big Village | 2014-10-29 | 559 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2014-10-29 | 909 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Harper Polling | 2014-10-29 | 511 | R+2.0 | 0 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-10-28 | 657 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2014-10-28 | 1727 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-10-28 | 982 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Vox Populi Polling | 2014-10-26 | 615 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2014-10-26 | 600 | EVEN | 2 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2014-10-25 | 432 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| Elon University | 2014-10-23 | 687 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2014-10-23 | 802 | EVEN | 2 |
| Marist College | 2014-10-21 | 756 | EVEN | 2 |
| YouGov | 2014-10-20 | 1910 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2014-10-18 | 568 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-10-17 | 780 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| National Research | 2014-10-17 | 600 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2014-10-16 | 1022 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2014-10-11 | 554 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2014-10-06 | 600 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| Suffolk University | 2014-10-06 | 500 | D+1.4 | 3 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-10-06 | 970 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| High Point University Survey Research Center | 2014-10-04 | 584 | R+0.9 | 1 |
| Marist College | 2014-09-29 | 665 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| National Research | 2014-09-26 | 600 | D+5.0 | 7 |
| GQR | 2014-09-26 | 679 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| YouGov | 2014-09-26 | 2002 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Big Village | 2014-09-24 | 595 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2014-09-22 | 860 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2014-09-17 | 600 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| High Point University Survey Research Center | 2014-09-15 | 410 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2014-09-15 | 605 | D+5.0 | 7 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-09-13 | 1266 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-09-09 | 1000 | D+6.0 | 8 |
| SurveyUSA | 2014-09-09 | 490 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| Elon University | 2014-09-07 | 629 | D+5.8 | 7 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2014-09-05 | 802 | D+3.0 | 5 |