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Toss-up · 2014 Senate
North Carolina Senate
In the 2014 North Carolina Senate race, Thomas Roland Tillis (R) won by about 2 points.
Actual result
R+1.6
Final polls said
D+0.5
21 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Harper Polling | R+2.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Gravis Marketing | R+1.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | High Point University Survey Research Center | R+0.9 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | National Research | EVEN | 1.6 | ✗ |
| 5 | Public Opinion Strategies | EVEN | 1.6 | ✗ |
| 6 | SurveyUSA | EVEN | 1.6 | ✗ |
| 7 | Marist College | EVEN | 1.6 | ✗ |
| 8 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | D+1.0 | 2.6 | ✗ |
| 9 | Rasmussen Reports | D+1.0 | 2.6 | ✗ |
| 10 | Suffolk University | D+1.4 | 3.0 | ✗ |
| 11 | Vox Populi Polling | R+5.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 12 | Public Policy Polling | D+2.0 | 3.6 | ✗ |
| 13 | Big Village | D+2.0 | 3.6 | ✗ |
| 14 | YouGov | D+2.0 | 3.6 | ✗ |
| 15 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+2.0 | 3.6 | ✗ |
| 16 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+3.0 | 4.6 | ✗ |
| 17 | Elon University | D+4.0 | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 18 | GQR | D+4.0 | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 19 | Global Strategy Group | D+4.0 | 5.6 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
40 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Public Policy Polling2014-11-024
Public Policy Polling2014-10-313
Gravis Marketing2014-10-301
National Research2014-10-292
Big Village2014-10-294
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2014 North Carolina Senate race?
Thomas Roland Tillis (R) won, by about 1.6 points (R+1.6).
When was the 2014 North Carolina Senate election held?
It was held in November 2014.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.