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Toss-up · 2014 Senate
New Hampshire Senate
In the 2014 New Hampshire Senate race, Jeanne Shaheen (D) won by about 3 points.
Actual result
D+3.2
Final polls said
D+2.0
16 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | D+3.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Suffolk University | D+3.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | D+2.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | D+2.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | Big Village | D+2.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | SurveyUSA | D+2.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 7 | YouGov | D+5.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 8 | Kiley & Company | D+6.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 9 | American Research Group | EVEN | 3.2 | ✗ |
| 10 | New England College Polling Center | R+0.5 | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 11 | Rasmussen Reports | D+7.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 12 | Global Strategy Group | D+7.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 13 | Magellan Strategies | R+1.6 | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 14 | Vox Populi Polling | R+4.0 | 7.2 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
35 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Public Policy Polling2014-11-021
University of New Hampshire Survey Center2014-10-311
New England College Polling Center2014-10-314
Public Policy Polling2014-10-301
Rasmussen Reports2014-10-294
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2014 New Hampshire Senate race?
Jeanne Shaheen (D) won, by about 3.2 points (D+3.2).
When was the 2014 New Hampshire Senate election held?
It was held in November 2014.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.