Actual result
R+20.9
Final polls said
R+14.1
7 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+13.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ccAdvertising | R+22.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+24.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | R+14.0 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Rasmussen Reports | R+14.0 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | Marist College | R+14.0 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 6 | Nielson Brothers Polling | R+13.7 | 7.2 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | R+13.5 | 7.3 | ✓ |
| 8 | YouGov | R+13.0 | 7.9 | ✓ |
| 9 | SurveyUSA | R+11.0 | 9.9 | ✓ |
| 10 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+9.0 | 11.9 | ✓ |
| 11 | Public Policy Polling | R+7.0 | 13.9 | ✓ |
| 12 | Harper Polling | R+4.0 | 16.9 | ✓ |
Polls (14)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2014-10-26 | 429 | R+14.0 | 7 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-10-24 | 908 | R+14.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2014-10-23 | 611 | R+11.0 | 10 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2014-10-22 | 800 | R+9.0 | 12 |
| Marist College | 2014-10-21 | 730 | R+14.0 | 7 |
| YouGov | 2014-10-20 | 527 | R+13.0 | 8 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2014-10-19 | 500 | R+24.0 | 3 |
| Harper Polling | 2014-10-10 | 630 | R+4.0 | 17 |
| SurveyUSA | 2014-10-03 | 616 | R+7.0 | 14 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-09-27 | 703 | R+7.0 | 14 |
| YouGov | 2014-09-26 | 382 | R+15.0 | 6 |
| Nielson Brothers Polling | 2014-09-23 | 647 | R+13.7 | 7 |
| ccAdvertising | 2014-09-23 | 1769 | R+22.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2014-09-05 | 510 | R+11.0 | 10 |