Actual result
R+8.7
Final polls said
D+3.3
3 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
D+0.9
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vox Populi Polling | EVEN | 8.7 | ✗ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+0.9 | 9.6 | ✗ |
| 3 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+2.0 | 10.7 | ✗ |
| 4 | Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | D+3.0 | 11.7 | ✗ |
| 5 | SurveyUSA | D+5.0 | 13.7 | ✗ |
| 6 | Western Kentucky University Social Science Research Center | D+5.0 | 13.7 | ✗ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vox Populi Polling | 2015-10-26 | 618 | EVEN | 9 |
| SurveyUSA | 2015-10-25 | 798 | D+5.0 | 14 |
| Western Kentucky University Social Science Research Center | 2015-10-22 | 770 | D+5.0 | 14 |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | 2015-10-14 | 500 | D+3.0 | 12 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2015-10-07 | 625 | D+2.0 | 11 |
| SurveyUSA | 2015-09-24 | 701 | D+5.0 | 14 |