Actual result
R+6.0
Final polls said
D+2.8
6 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
D+1.1
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Opinion Strategies | EVEN | 6.0 | ✗ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+1.1 | 7.0 | ✗ |
| 3 | SurveyMonkey | D+2.0 | 8.0 | ✗ |
| 4 | Gravis Marketing | D+4.0 | 9.9 | ✗ |
| 5 | Ball State University Bowen Center for Public Affairs | D+5.0 | 10.9 | ✗ |
| 6 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+6.0 | 11.9 | ✗ |
Polls (9)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 1700 | D+2.0 | 8 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2016-11-02 | 600 | EVEN | 6 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-10-31 | 399 | D+4.0 | 10 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2016-10-29 | 402 | D+6.0 | 12 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 674 | D+1.0 | 7 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-10-23 | 596 | D+4.0 | 10 |
| Ball State University Bowen Center for Public Affairs | 2016-10-13 | 544 | D+5.0 | 11 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2016-10-12 | 402 | D+12.0 | 18 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2016-10-04 | 600 | D+2.0 | 8 |