Actual result
R+5.6
Final polls said
D+2.6
9 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
D+1.9
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Remington Research Group | R+1.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | EVEN | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 3 | SurveyMonkey | D+1.0 | 6.6 | ✗ |
| 4 | BK Strategies | D+1.0 | 6.6 | ✗ |
| 5 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+1.0 | 6.6 | ✗ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | D+1.9 | 7.4 | ✗ |
| 7 | Public Policy Polling | D+3.0 | 8.6 | ✗ |
| 8 | DFM Research | D+6.0 | 11.6 | ✗ |
| 9 | Gravis Marketing | D+8.0 | 13.6 | ✗ |
Polls (15)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 1368 | D+1.0 | 7 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2016-11-01 | 871 | D+3.0 | 9 |
| Remington Research Group | 2016-10-31 | 1722 | R+1.0 | 5 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2016-10-30 | 405 | EVEN | 6 |
| DFM Research | 2016-10-29 | 508 | D+6.0 | 12 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 671 | D+10.0 | 16 |
| BK Strategies | 2016-10-27 | 1698 | D+1.0 | 7 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2016-10-25 | 625 | D+1.0 | 7 |
| Remington Research Group | 2016-10-24 | 2559 | D+2.0 | 8 |
| Remington Research Group | 2016-10-10 | 2171 | D+6.0 | 12 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2016-10-10 | 406 | D+3.0 | 9 |
| Remington Research Group | 2016-10-04 | 1588 | D+3.0 | 9 |
| Remington Research Group | 2016-09-26 | 1279 | D+16.0 | 22 |
| Remington Research Group | 2016-09-19 | 1076 | D+9.0 | 15 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-09-12 | 604 | D+8.0 | 14 |