Toss-up · 2016 Governor

North Carolina Governor

In the 2016 North Carolina Governor race, Roy A. Cooper (D) won by less than a point.

Actual result

D+0.2

Final polls said

D+2.9

16 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Elon University	EVEN	0.2	✗
2	The New York Times/Siena College	D+1.0	0.8	✓
3	SurveyUSA	D+1.0	0.8	✓
4	Big Village	D+1.0	0.8	✓
5	Monmouth University Polling Institute	R+1.0	1.2	✗
6	YouGov	D+2.0	1.8	✓
7	Public Policy Polling	D+2.0	1.8	✓
8	Ipsos	D+2.0	1.8	✓
9	Meredith College Department of History, Political Science, and International Studies	R+2.0	2.2	✗
10	Quinnipiac University	D+3.0	2.8	✓
11	Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research	R+3.0	3.2	✗
12	National Research	R+4.0	4.2	✗
13	Marist College	D+6.0	5.8	✓
14	Selzer & Co.	D+6.0	5.8	✓
15	Lucid	D+7.0	6.8	✓
16	High Point University Survey Research Center	D+7.0	6.8	✓
17	SurveyMonkey	D+11.0	10.8	✓