Actual result
D+0.2
Final polls said
D+2.9
16 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+1.6
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elon University | EVEN | 0.2 | ✗ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+1.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | D+1.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Big Village | D+1.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | R+1.0 | 1.2 | ✗ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | D+1.6 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 7 | YouGov | D+2.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 8 | Public Policy Polling | D+2.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 9 | Ipsos | D+2.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 10 | Meredith College Department of History, Political Science, and International Studies | R+2.0 | 2.2 | ✗ |
| 11 | Quinnipiac University | D+3.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 12 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | R+3.0 | 3.2 | ✗ |
| 13 | National Research | R+4.0 | 4.2 | ✗ |
| 14 | Marist College | D+6.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 15 | Selzer & Co. | D+6.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 16 | Lucid | D+7.0 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 17 | High Point University Survey Research Center | D+7.0 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 18 | SurveyMonkey | D+11.0 | 10.8 | ✓ |
Polls (33)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac University | 2016-11-05 | 870 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2016-11-05 | 800 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 3126 | D+11.0 | 11 |
| SurveyUSA | 2016-10-30 | 659 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2016-10-29 | 602 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 1574 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-27 | 992 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Elon University | 2016-10-25 | 710 | EVEN | 0 |
| Marist College | 2016-10-25 | 780 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2016-10-23 | 702 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2016-10-22 | 792 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2016-10-22 | 402 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2016-10-21 | 875 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Lucid | 2016-10-17 | 924 | D+7.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2016-10-16 | 651 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| National Research | 2016-10-16 | 600 | R+4.0 | 4 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-12 | 1233 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Big Village | 2016-10-12 | 788 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-12 | 1191 | D+13.0 | 13 |
| Marist College | 2016-10-11 | 743 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| High Point University Survey Research Center | 2016-10-03 | 479 | D+7.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2016-10-01 | 656 | D+4.0 | 4 |
| Selzer & Co. | 2016-10-01 | 805 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| Elon University | 2016-09-29 | 660 | D+4.0 | 4 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2016-09-29 | 507 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2016-09-27 | 861 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Meredith College Department of History, Political Science, and International Studies | 2016-09-20 | 487 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2016-09-19 | 1024 | D+5.0 | 5 |
| High Point University Survey Research Center | 2016-09-19 | 404 | D+9.0 | 9 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2016-09-19 | 734 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2016-09-18 | 782 | D+8.0 | 8 |
| Elon University | 2016-09-14 | 644 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| National Research | 2016-09-11 | 600 | R+2.0 | 2 |